Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 37.933004 41.313424 45.024856 49.433936 54.571480 60.422569 67.669438
2025-02-16 32.817306 37.276644 42.526681 49.278459 57.909716 68.842344 84.215469
2025-02-23 29.701927 34.609885 40.643995 48.814993 59.946414 75.185462 98.879470
2025-03-02 27.244964 32.335092 38.794440 47.888281 60.909950 79.913169 112.182634
2025-03-09 25.430935 30.639328 37.424453 47.298086 62.067992 84.918516 127.181796
2025-03-16 23.556942 28.681281 35.481597 45.615572 61.271807 86.598045 136.772461
2025-03-23 22.998697 28.411536 35.782747 47.146077 65.549431 97.403847 167.900971
2025-03-30 21.955526 27.389615 34.920883 46.806901 66.714187 102.941639 190.453660
2025-04-06 20.950246 26.347898 33.938862 46.159282 67.228248 107.317363 212.480204
2025-04-13 19.792602 25.022358 32.447313 44.557176 65.842654 107.596043 223.785352
2025-04-20 19.540114 24.969011 32.828981 46.002196 70.130245 120.741172 282.534822
2025-04-27 19.224196 24.798679 33.011257 47.119317 73.968728 134.076260 356.904350
2025-05-04 18.681687 24.293881 32.686609 47.417782 76.428772 145.430340 443.280663
2025-05-11 18.042676 23.615399 32.050498 47.119428 77.656953 154.208197 536.504474
2025-05-18 17.433489 22.948313 31.385400 46.697129 78.544459 162.420729 649.661207
2025-05-25 16.783811 22.188074 30.523093 45.832616 78.324081 167.336512 757.717975
2025-06-01 16.243530 21.571663 29.860210 45.282088 78.737887 174.518945 922.594604
2025-06-08 15.545814 20.683934 28.705439 43.711026 76.566123 172.426793 980.389379
2025-06-15 15.448493 20.726236 29.097367 45.140241 81.781444 198.713436 1704.769609
2025-06-22 15.046230 20.270123 28.621651 44.823673 82.643238 209.316450 2390.351231
2025-06-29 14.619140 19.758331 28.025468 44.218968 82.681777 216.732297 3296.664417
2025-07-06 14.065379 19.026609 27.020972 42.721569 80.193172 212.254591 3538.396821
2025-07-13 14.010630 19.091790 27.395975 44.072241 85.542620 246.904442 13857.536910